Over the last 3 years, central banks have purchased a whopping 3,176 tonnes of gold.
The precious metal is becoming the only viable hedge against unprecedented global uncertainty. Since March 2020, while bonds collapsed (-45%), gold has quietly risen 114%. Our analysis suggests this is just the beginning.
Chat Overview: GOLD (+114%) has seen strong and consistent growth since 2020, finishing at 200 in 2025. S&P 500 (+58%) shows moderate upward performance, ending around 158. BONDS (–45%) have declined sharply, particularly after 2022, but show slight recovery by 2025.
Why Gold Now?
Three critical metrics tell the whole story:
1. Record Central Bank Buying
Insights: Purchases spiked in Q2 and Q3 of 2023 and maintained consistent levels through 2024. A significant increase began in Q1 2025, reaching a peak of 100 tonnes in Q2 2025.
2. U.S. Interest Expense Explosion
The math is simple: $1.2T in annual interest payments, $23T in new debt issuance, and record-high uncertainty levels. When debt service costs exceed most countries' GDP, something has to give.
3. China's Strategic Shift
Treasury Holdings (in Billion USD): shown as light blue bars steadily declining year over year. Gold Holdings (in Tonnes): shown as a gold line with star markers, steadily increasing.
Rovenin's Position on Gold: A Three-Part Thesis
We recommend a 20% portfolio allocation to physical gold and gold ETFs for three reasons:
1. Risk/Reward Profile
Our upside target of $4,500 (Q4 2026) reflects accelerating central bank purchases and potential trade war escalation. Downside risk is cushioned at $2,800 by institutional accumulation and production costs, creating a highly favorable 36% upside vs 15% downside scenario.
Our prediction for gold is $4500 by Q4 2026
2. Portfolio Insurance
Think of gold not as an investment, but as insurance against three specific risks:
Currency Risk: Protection against dollar devaluation as U.S. debt hits $34T
Systemic Risk: Hedge against banking stress and market correlation breakdown
Geopolitical Risk: Buffer against trade wars and monetary system fragmentation
3. Structural Catalysts
These three metrics reveal an unprecedented shift: as central banks accelerate gold purchases to record levels (1,100T annually), real rates remain deeply negative (-1.2%), and Treasury issuance hits historic highs ($23T in 2023 alone). This isn't just correlation - it's central banks positioning for a fundamental change in the global monetary system.
This bar chart shows gold purchases rising consistently from 250 tonnes in 2020 to 1150 tonnes by 2024 — a strong upward trend.
This line chart shows that as real rates have fallen (from +2% to -2%), gold prices have risen — illustrating a clear inverse relationship.
Treasury issuance has doubled from $13T in 2020 to $26T in 2024 — showing massive growth in government debt supply.
This side-by-side bar chart compares key macro factors (CB buying, real rates, treasury supply) — showing more buying, lower rates, and much higher treasury supply now than in 2020.
Implementation Strategy
Gold isn't just a trade - it's a positioning for a fundamental shift in the global monetary system. The confluence of record deficit spending, negative real rates, and unprecedented central bank accumulation creates an asymmetric opportunity.
Our conviction stems not from technical analysis or momentum, but from understanding the structural forces at play. When central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in recorded history while simultaneously calling for a "soft landing," something doesn't add up.
This analysis suggests gold could reach $4,500 by 2026, with limited downside risk below $2,800. The risk-reward profile is among the most attractive we've seen in any asset class.
Build: Systematic monthly buying until reaching 20% allocation
Hold: Minimum 5-year view to capture structural shift
Accumulate: Use sub-$3,000 dips to add exposure
Protect: Treat as permanent portfolio insurance, not a trade
Rovenin’s strategy for Gold
This isn't a trade - it's insurance against a fundamentally changing financial system. When central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in history while calling for a "soft landing," the signal is clear.