Weather Bot
Forecasts for the exact station that settles each Polymarket temperature bet, against market prices.
Read moreCalculated odds for 5 and 15 minute Bitcoin and Ethereum up or down markets.
Polymarket runs 5 and 15 minute Bitcoin and Ethereum up or down markets. Our bot estimates fair odds from price, time remaining and volatility, then simulates small limit orders only where the market is underpricing.
We studied one of the most active bots in these markets (1.83 million fills) to learn its behaviour, and our backtest's best version returned 4.4% per dollar deployed.
Promising but not yet statistically proven. A preregistered one week live paper test ends 30 September 2026.
Forecasts for the exact station that settles each Polymarket temperature bet, against market prices.
Read moreCollecting funding from leveraged traders, with price moves hedged out.
Read moreWhat copying Polymarket's top traders would really have made, after delays and fees.
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