Carry Bot
Collecting funding from leveraged traders, with price moves hedged out.
Read moreForecasts for the exact station that settles each Polymarket temperature bet, against market prices.
Polymarket runs daily bets on city temperatures. We built a bot that pulls weather model forecasts for the exact airport station that settles each bet and compares them to market prices.
We backtested it on about 3,700 resolved markets and verified the station data matched Polymarket's payouts 98.6% of the time.
The market beat our forecasts even before trading costs (a Brier score of 0.649 against our 0.785, where lower is better), and order books on the edge temperature buckets were only about $1 to 2 deep, too thin to size into anyway.
The collector keeps running in case better forecasts change the picture.
Collecting funding from leveraged traders, with price moves hedged out.
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